TiO₂ 2026 Opens Higher, Creating a Short-Term Buying Window

The TiO₂ market opens 2026 with a firm price increase of RMB 200-300/ton, setting a stable foundation for the January period. For downstream users, the immediate question is about procurement timing.

TiO₂ Prices Likely to Keep Rising in the Near Term

The main driver remains raw material costs. Sulfur and sulfuric acid prices stay high. In some regions, particularly in Southwest China, producers struggle to secure a sufficient supply. Several plants are running at lower rates or have stopped production. As a result, raw material costs are unlikely to decrease in the short term.

Policy measures aim to stabilize the supply of sulfur and sulfuric acid. However, these measures take time to show results. Cost pressure continues to support TiO₂ prices.

On the demand side, the situation is less active. Early 2026 demand is not strong. After the price rise, some buyers placed orders, but most purchases met only basic needs. Higher prices set by suppliers need time to be accepted by the market. Supply remains larger than demand overall.

In short, overcapacity is a structural issue that keeps prices under long-term pressure. However, short-term prices are driven by immediate costs, available supply, and market expectations. The recent rise in prices is largely driven by higher raw material costs, not a fundamental improvement in demand. Some analysts expect that, constrained by supply and demand, average TiO₂ prices in 2026 may still face downward pressure.

TiO₂ Production Drops for the First Time in 20+ Years

Beyond short-term price movements, the more meaningful signal lies in the supply-side data. In 2025, China’s TiO₂ industry saw its total annual output fall for the first time in over 20 years. The total production of rutile, anatase, and other TiO₂ products reached 4.72 million tonnes, down 1% from 2024.

Chloride process TiO₂ continued to gain share. Its output rose to 752,000 tonnes, accounting for 15.9% of total TiO₂ production and 18.3% of rutile production.

Despite the slight output increase in chloride products, the overall industry shows serious overcapacity. Effective production capacity reached 5.7 million tonnes, giving an average utilization rate of only 82.8%. If idle and partially closed plants are included, overall utilization drops to 77.3%. This points to a clear mismatch between supply and market demand. The data reveal that China’s titanium dioxide industry is moving from pure capacity expansion to a period of structural adjustment, focused on technological upgrades and higher market concentration.

Short-Term Buying Opportunity Before Chinese New Year

The recent price hikes have shaped market sentiment. Prices are expected to remain firm in the short term, driven by Chinese New Year stocking demand. By mid-January, the market trend is largely set. Prices are unlikely to fall.

Downstream buyers planning to stock can consider acting now. The current market carries limited downside risk, and some buyers may even benefit from potential price gains.