TiO2 Market Outlook: Cost Relief in Sight, Price Upside Remains

By mid-December, the titanium dioxide (TiO₂) market had entered a phase of relative stability. However, production costs remain elevated as key raw materials—sulfur and sulfuric acid—continue to trade at high levels. As a result, most producers remain under significant cost pressure, and expectations for price increases persist, leaving room for further upside.

Based on current cost structures and selling prices, the majority of TiO₂ producers are operating at or below break-even levels. In response, production curtailments and temporary shutdowns have already emerged across South China, Southwest China, and East China. Any subsequent price increases should be viewed less as proactive moves and more as necessary measures to sustain operations.

Raw Material Prices: Short-Term Pressure, Long-Term Relief

Despite persistently high sulfur and sulfuric acid prices, several recent policy developments point to longer-term cost relief:

1. To secure supply for spring agricultural demand, exports of DAP fertilizer will not be arranged until August 2026

2. Export restrictions have been imposed on sulfur and sulfuric acid products to prioritize domestic supply

3. Two major state-owned producers have been instructed to increase domestic supply of sulfur and sulfuric acid

In the short term, due to pricing mechanisms and policy transmission lags, sulfur and sulfuric acid prices are unlikely to decline sharply. Looking further ahead, prices are expected to normalize around March–April 2026. Until then, TiO₂ producers will likely continue operating under high-cost conditions, keeping downside price risk limited.

Even when raw material prices eventually ease, TiO2 prices are unlikely to fall immediately. Producers must first recover from prolonged losses—moving from negative margins to break-even—before any meaningful price corrections can occur. This suggests a lag effect in downstream pricing.

Year-End Market Dynamics: Volatility Within a Downward Bias

Overall, 2025 is expected to remain volatile, with a broadly downward trend despite intermittent price rebounds. Current price levels are relatively low, aligning with year-end procurement and volume-driven strategies on the supply side.

Earlier price adjustments in the range of RMB 0–500 per ton were not limited to small-volume buyers; even large direct customers were included. As December progresses, trading activity has improved modestly. Some distributors and end-users have begun restocking, while the tightness of supply in specific grades has supported spot transactions.

In Southwest China, a small number of producers have implemented order suspensions and price increases of RMB 200–300 per ton, driven by tighter supply and improving shipment volumes. New orders and order backlogs have shown slight growth, with the market now closely watching pricing decisions from major producers. Overall sentiment on the supply side remains firmly bullish.

Upstream Support: Titanium Ore Market Shows Early Signs of Tightening

Upstream, the titanium ore market is also beginning to show signs of support. In the southwestern Sichuan region, mainstream titanium concentrate prices have remained stable this week. However, supply has tightened due to temporary shutdowns at some beneficiation plants caused by infrastructure works, limiting spot availability.

As downstream TiO₂ producers signal potential price increases, sentiment among titanium ore producers has improved. According to industry analysts, tightening supply combined with downstream price expectations has encouraged ore suppliers to hold firm on pricing. While short-term titanium concentrate prices are expected to remain largely stable, upward expectations are gradually building.

Closing Insight

In the near term, the titanium dioxide market remains constrained by high costs and cautious demand. Yet beneath the surface, supply tightening—both upstream and downstream—along with strong price expectations is reshaping market sentiment.

While significant price surges remain unlikely, downside risk appears limited. For industry participants, the coming period will be defined by cost endurance, inventory strategy, and positioning ahead of potential structural shifts once raw material pressures begin to ease.